Tianjin Teda 1-2 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda and Shenzhen Ruby FC meet at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 9 June 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tianjin Teda have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 3W 2D 5L at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's overall Super League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Tianjin Teda register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Tianjin Teda — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Shenzhen Ruby FC — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 54% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 46% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.61 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 1.021 / defence 1.039 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.032 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.071. Data: 15 Tianjin Teda games / 15 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 48% | Draw 26% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 3.70. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 70% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (15 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 9 Jun 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 48% | Draw 26% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.61 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 1.021 / def 1.039 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.032 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 12:30 on Thursday 9 June 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 2 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 48% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Tianjin Teda's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack (1.03x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
The sample (15/15 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.91
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.75
1.15
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
5%
18.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.15 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 5W 6D 11L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form line: 9W 5D 8L from 22 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shenzhen Ruby FC are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tianjin Teda.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.00 PPG from 11 outings (3W 2D 6L).
On the road, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 5W 2D 4L from 11 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shenzhen Ruby FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tianjin Teda are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 5W 6D 11L in their last 22 games (0.95 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 9W 5D 8L in their last 22 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.00 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Shenzhen Ruby FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Tianjin Teda
1
Draws
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 2, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2023, when Tianjin Teda 3-3 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Tianjin Teda, 73% for Shenzhen Ruby FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Tianjin Teda and 73% for Shenzhen Ruby FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Tianjin Teda's games and 73% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 73% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shenzhen Ruby FC defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Tianjin Teda 1-2 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.61 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 1.02 / defence 1.04 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.01, drawn from 15/15 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 48% | Draw 26% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 27%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Shenzhen Ruby FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 46%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shenzhen Ruby FC arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.