Tianjin Teda 1-4 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host SHANGHAI SIPG at Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 16 April 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing away from home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SHANGHAI SIPG — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, SHANGHAI SIPG have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Tianjin Teda.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 0–5 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
It is worth noting that SHANGHAI SIPG have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 62% and SHANGHAI SIPG 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 50% | SHANGHAI SIPG 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.80 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.955 / defence 0.922 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.154 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.494. Data: 36 Tianjin Teda games / 35 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 41% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 33%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | SHANGHAI SIPG 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SHANGHAI SIPG (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 50% | SHANGHAI SIPG 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Apr 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 41% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.80 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.955 / def 0.922 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.154 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.494 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.59
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 16 April 2025 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 4 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 41% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (7 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 1 | SHANGHAI SIPG 5W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.95) and SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
41%
2.41
26%
3.88
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
3.39
1.59
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
5%
18.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.59 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 23W 21D 16L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form line: 44W 9D 7L from 60 games, 2.35 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tianjin Teda.
Venue Form
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.70 PPG from 30 outings (12W 15D 3L).
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 22W 4D 4L from 30 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.62 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 60%.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 23W 21D 16L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 44W 9D 7L in their last 60 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.70 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2021, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Tianjin Teda
3
Draws
6
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 57%, SHANGHAI SIPG 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Tianjin Teda) and 63% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; SHANGHAI SIPG in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 43% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 63% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Tianjin Teda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Tianjin Teda 1-4 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.80 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.59 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.59 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.15 / defence 1.10, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 41% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 33%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual SHANGHAI SIPG win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 50%, SHANGHAI SIPG 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.