Tianjin Teda 3-3 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Shandong Luneng travel to Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 May 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 5W 2D 3L at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Shandong Luneng — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Shandong Luneng's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Tianjin Teda) versus 1.90 (Shandong Luneng). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Tianjin Teda, 2 for Shandong Luneng and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2022, ended 1–4 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Tianjin Teda trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Shandong Luneng trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 49% versus Shandong Luneng 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 47% | Shandong Luneng 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.19 xG and Shandong Luneng 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.952 / defence 0.724 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.922 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.268. Tianjin Teda's defence rating of 0.724 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Tianjin Teda games / 41 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 40% | Draw 38% | Shandong Luneng 22%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.50 | Draw 2.63 | Shandong Luneng 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 40% | Shandong Luneng 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 40% | Draw 38% | Shandong Luneng 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.19 / Shandong Luneng 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.952 / def 0.724 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.922 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Shandong Luneng xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Tianjin Teda 3 - 3 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 40% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 22% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng?
Record (2 meetings): Tianjin Teda 0W | Draws 0 | Shandong Luneng 2W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.95x the league average against Shandong Luneng's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
40%
2.50
38%
2.65
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.04
0.85
Shandong Luneng xG
2.50
40%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
7%
14.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 0.85 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tianjin Teda come into this having played 55 games, going 19W 13D 23L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Shandong Luneng sit at 2.29 PPG from 55 outings (39W 9D 7L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.02 PPG clear of Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Tianjin Teda's home form reads 10W 6D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Shandong Luneng have taken 1.89 points per game from 27 outings (15W 6D 6L). That's a step down from their 2.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.40 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 games (1.27 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 39W 9D 7L in their last 55 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.33 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Shandong Luneng have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2022, when Shandong Luneng won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Tianjin Teda
2
Draws
7
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 1, Shandong Luneng have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Shandong Luneng 2-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 56%, Shandong Luneng 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Tianjin Teda) and 59% (Shandong Luneng). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Tianjin Teda's games and 59% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 59% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng finished level at 3-3 at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.19 xG and Shandong Luneng 0.85 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Tianjin Teda beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shandong Luneng outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.95 / defence 0.72 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 40% | Draw 38% | Shandong Luneng 22%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 47%, Shandong Luneng 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.