Tianjin Teda 3-2 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon make the trip to Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium to face Tianjin Teda in Super League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Wednesday 28 June 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Tianjin Teda (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Tianjin Teda's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.58 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 1.026 / defence 0.843 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.647 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.286. Data: 45 Tianjin Teda games / 12 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 57% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Jonoon 15%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.75 | Draw 3.57 | Qingdao Jonoon 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jun 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 57% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Jonoon 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.58 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 1.026 / def 0.843 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.647 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Qingdao Jonoon xG
42%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 28 June 2023 at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Tianjin Teda 3 - 2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 57% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 15% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Tianjin Teda home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (1.03) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Qingdao Jonoon's attack (0.65x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 45/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
57%
1.75
28%
3.57
15%
6.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.29
0.70
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
6.69
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
28%
3.54
3%
32.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 11.3 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 0.70 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Pre-Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 1-4 on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Tianjin Teda
1
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 8 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 5, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 0-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Qingdao Jonoon?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Qingdao Jonoon 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Qingdao Jonoon 3-2 at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.58 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.70 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Tianjin Teda beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Qingdao Jonoon outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 1.03 / defence 0.84 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.65 / defence 1.12, drawn from 45/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 57% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Jonoon 15%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.