Tianjin Teda 0-0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Tianjin Teda welcome Guangzhou Evergrande FC to Wuyuan River Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 5 December 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Tianjin Teda at Wuyuan River Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Tianjin Teda carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Tianjin Teda, 0 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Tianjin Teda trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Guangzhou Evergrande FC trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 52% versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 46% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.96 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 1.073 / defence 0.714 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.555 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.428. Guangzhou Evergrande FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Tianjin Teda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Tianjin Teda's defence rating of 0.714 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Tianjin Teda games / 42 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 70% | Draw 20% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 9%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.43 | Draw 5.00 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (70%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 40% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 5 Dec 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 70% | Draw 20% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 37% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.96 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 1.073 / def 0.714 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.555 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
0.57
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
37%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 5 December 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Tianjin Teda 0 - 0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 70% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 9% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Record (1 meetings): Tianjin Teda 0W | Draws 1 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Tianjin Teda's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 0.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.5%), 3-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
70%
1.42
20%
4.93
9%
10.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.4%
Home win
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.52
0.57
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
1.42
70%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
10.59
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
57%
1.76
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
40%
2.51
1%
75.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 8.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.4 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 0.57 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tianjin Teda come into this having played 50 games, going 18W 11D 21L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Guangzhou Evergrande FC sit at 1.18 PPG from 50 outings (16W 11D 23L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.30 PPG, Guangzhou Evergrande FC on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Tianjin Teda's home form reads 10W 4D 11L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have taken 0.88 points per game from 25 outings (6W 4D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou Evergrande FC are on 1.34 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 18W 11D 21L in their last 50 games (1.30 PPG), while Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 16W 11D 23L in their last 50 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Guangzhou Evergrande FC away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.36 PPG; Guangzhou Evergrande FC away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Guangzhou Evergrande FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Tianjin Teda
2
Draws
0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 0, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2022, when Tianjin Teda 0-0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 60%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Tianjin Teda) and 48% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC).
On the defensive side: Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 40% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 48% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou Evergrande FC tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Tianjin Teda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou Evergrande FC drew 0-0 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.96 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.57 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Tianjin Teda fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 1.07 / defence 0.71 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.56 / defence 1.25, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 70% | Draw 20% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 9%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 46%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.30 PPG, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.