Tianjin Teda 1-3 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium plays host to Tianjin Teda versus Dalian Aerbin in Super League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Tuesday 3 August 2021 at 13:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Tianjin Teda have collected 0.56 PPG across 9 Super League outings this season: 1W 2D 6L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 1W 0D 4L this season (5 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Dalian Aerbin (all games): 1W 1D 7L across 9 Super League outings this term — 0.44 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.56 per game is modest, conceding 1.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Dalian Aerbin have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.56 for Tianjin Teda, 0.44 for Dalian Aerbin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Tianjin Teda, 1 for Dalian Aerbin and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2021, ended 0–1 with Dalian Aerbin winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Dalian Aerbin half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 56% versus Dalian Aerbin 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 56% | Dalian Aerbin 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.37 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.905 / defence 1.839 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.741 / defence 1.493. League average goals — home 1.014 / away 1.197. Dalian Aerbin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.493 — this is suppressing Tianjin Teda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Tianjin Teda games / 9 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 29% | Draw 30% | Dalian Aerbin 40%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Dalian Aerbin 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Dalian Aerbin are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 80% | Dalian Aerbin 25%.

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