Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu host Tianjin Teda at Longquanyi Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 4W 1D 5L at Longquanyi Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Sichuan Jiuniu) versus 1.40 (Tianjin Teda). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sichuan Jiuniu register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Tianjin Teda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sichuan Jiuniu, 3 for Tianjin Teda and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Tianjin Teda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Tianjin Teda trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 57% versus Tianjin Teda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 63% | Tianjin Teda 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.78 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.988 / defence 1.024 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.952 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.832 / away 1.272. Data: 31 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 31 Tianjin Teda games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 49% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 25%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Tianjin Teda 4.00. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sichuan Jiuniu are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 80% | Tianjin Teda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Longquanyi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 49% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.78 / Tianjin Teda 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.988 / def 1.024 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.952 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.832 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Tianjin Teda xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Longquanyi Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda?
Sichuan Jiuniu 1 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Longquanyi Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 49% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda?
Record (4 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 1W | Draws 0 | Tianjin Teda 3W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sichuan Jiuniu's attack at 0.99x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.88
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.02
1.24
Tianjin Teda xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
4%
23.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.24 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sichuan Jiuniu's recent record stands at 15W 11D 34L from 60 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 24W 14D 22L across 60 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tianjin Teda by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sichuan Jiuniu heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sichuan Jiuniu have managed 10W 6D 14L from 30 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 9W 5D 16L across 30 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.40 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 15W 11D 34L in their last 60 games (0.93 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.20 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2024, when Tianjin Teda won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
0
Draws
4
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda?
From 6 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, Tianjin Teda have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Tianjin Teda 3-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sichuan Jiuniu at 67%, Tianjin Teda at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sichuan Jiuniu and 70% for Tianjin Teda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 70% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 70% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sichuan Jiuniu edge out Tianjin Teda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Tianjin Teda 1-0 at Longquanyi Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.78 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.24 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 49% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 25%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 63%, Tianjin Teda 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Sichuan Jiuniu winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.