Sichuan Jiuniu 0-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 77%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Sichuan Jiuniu welcome Shanghai Shenhua to Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 May 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Super League games this season, Shanghai Shenhua have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 0.60 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 2.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.652 / defence 1.581 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.036 / defence 0.605. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.485. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack strength of 0.652 is below the league average — the 0.60 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shanghai Shenhua's defence strength of 0.605 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 13 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 43 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 7% | Draw 16% | Shanghai Shenhua 77%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 14.29 | Draw 6.25 | Shanghai Shenhua 1.30. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (77%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 77% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 7% | Draw 16% | Shanghai Shenhua 77% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 42% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 0.60 / Shanghai Shenhua 2.43 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.652 / def 1.581 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.036 / def 0.605 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.60
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
2.43
Shanghai Shenhua xG
42%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Sichuan Jiuniu 0 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 7% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 77% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Shanghai Shenhua away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sichuan Jiuniu's attack rating (0.65) and Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating (0.60), the model arrives at 0.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 2.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-3 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
7%
15.36
16%
6.08
77%
1.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
0 – 3
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.60
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.04
2.43
Shanghai Shenhua xG
15.36
7%
Home win
6.08
16%
Draw
1.30
77%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
9%
11.40
55%
1.83
Win to Nil
1%
175.18
42%
2.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 11.7 | 14.2 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 3.4 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 0.60 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 2.43 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
1
Draws
2
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 5 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Sichuan Jiuniu 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Sichuan Jiuniu 0-1 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 0.60 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 2.43 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shanghai Shenhua landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.65 / defence 1.58 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.04 / defence 0.60, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 7% | Draw 16% | Shanghai Shenhua 77%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 77%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.