Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda meet at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium in Super League, Relegation Round - 4. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium: 2W 3D 3L from 8 Super League appearances (1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game.
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's away record: 0W 4D 4L from 8 road trips in Super League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s favour (1.10 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Shijiazhuang Y. J. half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 65% and Tianjin Teda 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 53% | Tianjin Teda 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.22 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.851 / defence 1.127 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.677 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Tianjin Teda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 14 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 39% | Draw 33% | Tianjin Teda 27%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Tianjin Teda 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 38% | Tianjin Teda 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Dec 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 39% | Draw 33% | Tianjin Teda 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.22 / Tianjin Teda 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.851 / def 1.127 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.677 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Tianjin Teda xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 39% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack rating (0.85) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (0.68x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
39%
2.55
33%
2.99
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.20
0.98
Tianjin Teda xG
2.55
39%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
8%
12.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0.98 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 3W 5D 9L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 2W 5D 10L from 17 games, 0.65 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.82 PPG for Shijiazhuang Y. J. against 0.65 for Tianjin Teda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 0W 4D 4L from 8 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shijiazhuang Y. J. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 0.82 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Tianjin Teda in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 3W 5D 9L in their last 17 games (0.82 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 5D 10L in their last 17 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.12 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Tianjin Teda have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 3-0 on 12 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
5
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda?
From 8 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Tianjin Teda have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when Tianjin Teda 3-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 38%, Tianjin Teda 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 25% for Tianjin Teda.
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 50% of games; Tianjin Teda in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 38% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 25% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shijiazhuang Y. J. edge out Tianjin Teda 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Tianjin Teda 2-1 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Relegation Round - 4, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.22 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.98 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.85 / defence 1.13 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.68 / defence 1.24, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 39% | Draw 33% | Tianjin Teda 27%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 53%, Tianjin Teda 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.82 PPG, Tianjin Teda 0.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shijiazhuang Y. J. win broke the near-deadlock. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.