Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-2 Guangzhou R&F – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Shijiazhuang Y. J. take on Guangzhou R&F.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. host Guangzhou R&F at Huadu Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 5 August 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. at Huadu Stadium this season: 1W 2D 2L from 5 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guangzhou R&F stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Guangzhou R&F have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Guangzhou R&F's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s 20% and Guangzhou R&F's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 0, Guangzhou R&F 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Guangzhou R&F in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54% versus Guangzhou R&F 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46% | Guangzhou R&F 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.88 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.749 / defence 1.066 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.639 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.020 / away 1.224. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 11 Guangzhou R&F games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 31% | Draw 41% | Guangzhou R&F 28%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.23 | Draw 2.44 | Guangzhou R&F 3.57. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.72 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 20% | Guangzhou R&F 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Huadu Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Aug 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 31% | Draw 41% | Guangzhou R&F 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 37% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.88 / Guangzhou R&F 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.749 / def 1.066 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.639 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.020 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Guangzhou R&F xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F kicked off at 11:00 on Thursday 5 August 2021 at Huadu Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0 - 2 Guangzhou R&F.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F being played?
The match is being played at Huadu Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 31% chance of winning, Guangzhou R&F a 28% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou R&F will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou R&F?
Record (1 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W | Draws 1 | Guangzhou R&F 0W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou R&F in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack rating (0.75) and Guangzhou R&F's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou R&F's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.26
41%
2.42
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
1.72
0.83
Guangzhou R&F xG
3.26
31%
Home win
2.42
41%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
12%
8.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.0 | 15.0 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.7%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou R&F expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0.83 for Guangzhou R&F, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have picked up 0.64 PPG on a 1W 4D 6L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou R&F's form line: 4W 5D 2L from 11 games, 1.55 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Guangzhou R&F are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
On the road, Guangzhou R&F have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guangzhou R&F come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou R&F are on 1.55 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Guangzhou R&F in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou R&F in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 4D 6L in their last 11 games (0.64 PPG), while Guangzhou R&F have gone 4W 5D 2L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Guangzhou R&F away?
Guangzhou R&F's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.00 PPG; Guangzhou R&F away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Guangzhou R&F been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Guangzhou R&F in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou R&F runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Dec 2022, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Guangzhou R&F specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
1
Guangzhou R&F
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou R&F?
From 4 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Guangzhou R&F have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou R&F last play each other?
They last met on 31 December 2022, when Guangzhou R&F 1-4 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Guangzhou R&F see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 20% BTTS, Guangzhou R&F 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 40% for Guangzhou R&F.
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Guangzhou R&F in 60%; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 60% of games; Guangzhou R&F in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Guangzhou R&F away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Guangzhou R&F?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 20% of Guangzhou R&F's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 40% of Guangzhou R&F's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou R&F tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Guangzhou R&F in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guangzhou R&F cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou R&F beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-2 at Huadu Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.88 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.83 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Guangzhou R&F outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.75 / defence 1.07 against Guangzhou R&F attack 0.64 / defence 1.15, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 31% | Draw 41% | Guangzhou R&F 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Guangzhou R&F win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46%, Guangzhou R&F 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Guangzhou R&F arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.64. Form held, and they took the win. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guangzhou R&F (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.