Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 Guangzhou R&F – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shenzhen Ruby FC at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shenzhen Ruby FC host Guangzhou R&F at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 2 August 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 0L across 5 games at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guangzhou R&F stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Guangzhou R&F have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Shenzhen Ruby FC have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shenzhen Ruby FC, 0 for Guangzhou R&F and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2021, ended 4–2 with Shenzhen Ruby FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Guangzhou R&F in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% and Guangzhou R&F 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shenzhen Ruby FC 70% | Guangzhou R&F 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.23 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.932 / defence 0.956 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.623 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.166. Guangzhou R&F bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Shenzhen Ruby FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 10 Guangzhou R&F games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 45% | Draw 37% | Guangzhou R&F 17%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.22 | Draw 2.70 | Guangzhou R&F 5.88. Shenzhen Ruby FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (37%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shenzhen Ruby FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shenzhen Ruby FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% | Guangzhou R&F 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 2 Aug 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 45% | Draw 37% | Guangzhou R&F 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.23 / Guangzhou R&F 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.932 / def 0.956 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.623 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Shenzhen Ruby FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Guangzhou R&F xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 2 August 2021 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 1 Guangzhou R&F.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F being played?
The match is being played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 45% chance of winning, Guangzhou R&F a 17% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Shenzhen Ruby FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou R&F will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou R&F?
Record (1 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W | Draws 0 | Guangzhou R&F 0W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou R&F in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack at 0.93x the league average against Guangzhou R&F's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou R&F's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenzhen Ruby FC Win
45%
2.20
37%
2.67
17%
5.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
1.93
0.69
Guangzhou R&F xG
2.20
45%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
5.81
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
5%
19.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 10.1 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.5 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou R&F expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 0.69 for Guangzhou R&F, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shenzhen Ruby FC come into this having played 10 games, going 6W 3D 1L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guangzhou R&F sit at 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (3W 5D 2L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shenzhen Ruby FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Guangzhou R&F — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home form reads 2W 2D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Guangzhou R&F have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shenzhen Ruby FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou R&F are on 1.60 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shenzhen Ruby FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Guangzhou R&F in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou R&F in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 games (2.10 PPG), while Guangzhou R&F have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Guangzhou R&F away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Guangzhou R&F away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Guangzhou R&F been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Guangzhou R&F in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou R&F runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Dec 2022, when Guangzhou R&F won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Guangzhou R&F specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
2
Guangzhou R&F
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou R&F?
From 4 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Guangzhou R&F have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou R&F last play each other?
They last met on 27 December 2022, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 Guangzhou R&F.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou R&F?
Guangzhou R&F have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Guangzhou R&F see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 75%, Guangzhou R&F 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 50% for Guangzhou R&F. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guangzhou R&F in 50%; Guangzhou R&F in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Guangzhou R&F away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Guangzhou R&F?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 25% of Guangzhou R&F's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Guangzhou R&F usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's matches and 50% of Guangzhou R&F's.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Guangzhou R&F tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Guangzhou R&F in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Guangzhou R&F defy the odds to beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou R&F beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.23 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.69 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Guangzhou R&F attack 0.62 / defence 1.27, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 45% | Draw 37% | Guangzhou R&F 17%, with Shenzhen Ruby FC to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Guangzhou R&F win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 70%, Guangzhou R&F 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shenzhen Ruby FC arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.40. Form was overturned, with Guangzhou R&F winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Guangzhou R&F (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.