Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Beijing Guoan travel to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium to take on Shenzhen Ruby FC. The game is scheduled for Monday 11 July 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Beijing Guoan are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Shenzhen Ruby FC, 2 for Beijing Guoan and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Jun 2022, ended 1–4 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 61% versus Beijing Guoan 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 64% | Beijing Guoan 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.61 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.062 / defence 1.133 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.241 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.149. Beijing Guoan have an above-average attack strength of 1.241 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 23 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 23 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 37% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 38%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Beijing Guoan 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: Shenzhen Ruby FC 40% | Beijing Guoan 60%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 11 Jul 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 37% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.61 / Beijing Guoan 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.062 / def 1.133 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.241 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Beijing Guoan xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:30 on Monday 11 July 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 37% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan?
Record (3 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 2W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating (1.06) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
37%
2.68
25%
4.00
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
3.22
1.62
Beijing Guoan xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
7%
13.50
8%
13.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.62 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shenzhen Ruby FC come into this having played 31 games, going 13W 6D 12L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beijing Guoan sit at 1.58 PPG from 31 outings (13W 10D 8L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shenzhen Ruby FC on 1.45 PPG, Beijing Guoan on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home form reads 6W 3D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Beijing Guoan have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.29 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shenzhen Ruby FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 13W 6D 12L in their last 31 games (1.45 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 13W 10D 8L in their last 31 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.40 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Beijing Guoan have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Jul 2023, when Beijing Guoan won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan?
From 6 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 4 November 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 47%, Beijing Guoan 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 53% (Beijing Guoan).
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Beijing Guoan in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Beijing Guoan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 53% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 53% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shenzhen Ruby FC defy the odds to beat Beijing Guoan 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Beijing Guoan 2-1 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.61 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.62 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.13 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.24 / defence 1.08, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 37% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 38%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Shenzhen Ruby FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 64%, Beijing Guoan 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.45 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shenzhen Ruby FC win broke the near-deadlock. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.