SHANGHAI SIPG 5-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG host Tianjin Teda at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 August 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SHANGHAI SIPG — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 5W 1D 0L at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium — 2.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.17 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 6 home games (83%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 3L across 6 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
On current form, SHANGHAI SIPG have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 38% versus Tianjin Teda 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 46% | Tianjin Teda 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.30 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.120 / defence 0.698 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.571 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.279. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating of 0.698 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 13 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 13 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 54% | Draw 33% | Tianjin Teda 13%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.85 | Draw 3.03 | Tianjin Teda 7.69. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Tianjin Teda's lower xG of 0.51 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 17% | Tianjin Teda 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 54% | Draw 33% | Tianjin Teda 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 31% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.30 / Tianjin Teda 0.51 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.120 / def 0.698 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.571 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.51
Tianjin Teda xG
31%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
SHANGHAI SIPG 5 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 54% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 13% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SHANGHAI SIPG's attack rating (1.12) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 0.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (17.7%), 2-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
54%
1.84
33%
3.03
13%
7.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
21.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
1.81
0.51
Tianjin Teda xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
7.96
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.22
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
60%
1.67
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
33%
3.06
3%
29.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 8.3 | 2.1 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 1 | 21.3 | 10.8 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 7.1 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.51 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, SHANGHAI SIPG have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 7W 4D 2L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 2W 3D 8L from 13 games, 0.69 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 1.23 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tianjin Teda.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 2.67 PPG from 6 outings (5W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — SHANGHAI SIPG are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 0.54 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 0.85 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda in 62%.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 7W 4D 2L in their last 13 games (1.92 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 3D 8L in their last 13 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Tianjin Teda away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.67 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 0.50 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2021, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
SHANGHAI SIPG
3
Draws
1
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6, Tianjin Teda have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 83% of the time.
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — SHANGHAI SIPG 17% BTTS, Tianjin Teda 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 17% for Tianjin Teda.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 83% of their matches; Tianjin Teda in 33%; Tianjin Teda in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 33% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 17% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Tianjin Teda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Tianjin Teda 5-0 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.30 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.51 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.12 / defence 0.70 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.57 / defence 1.05, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 54% | Draw 33% | Tianjin Teda 13%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 46%, Tianjin Teda 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.69. Form held, and they took the win. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.