Shandong Luneng 0-1 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shandong Luneng host Qingdao Youth Island at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 September 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shandong Luneng — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Youth Island have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Youth Island away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shandong Luneng at 0.90 PPG versus Qingdao Youth Island's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Shandong Luneng, 0 for Qingdao Youth Island and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Shandong Luneng trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Qingdao Youth Island trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 46% versus Qingdao Youth Island 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 54% | Qingdao Youth Island 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.46 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.096 / defence 0.832 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.903 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.825 / away 1.317. Qingdao Youth Island bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Shandong Luneng's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Shandong Luneng games / 24 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 69% | Draw 17% | Qingdao Youth Island 13%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.45 | Draw 5.88 | Qingdao Youth Island 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 50% | Qingdao Youth Island 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 69% | Draw 17% | Qingdao Youth Island 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 58% | xG Shandong Luneng 2.46 / Qingdao Youth Island 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.096 / def 0.832 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.903 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.825 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Qingdao Youth Island xG
58%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 13 September 2024 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Shandong Luneng 0 - 1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 69% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (1 meetings): Shandong Luneng 0W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Youth Island 0W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shandong Luneng's attack rating (1.10) and Qingdao Youth Island's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
69%
1.44
17%
5.77
13%
7.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
3 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.45
0.99
Qingdao Youth Island xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.77
17%
Draw
7.58
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
9%
11.68
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
1%
88.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.99 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Shandong Luneng have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 10W 7D 7L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Youth Island's form line: 5W 7D 12L from 24 games, 0.92 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shandong Luneng are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Qingdao Youth Island.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shandong Luneng have posted 1.91 PPG from 11 outings (6W 3D 2L).
On the road, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 3W 1D 7L from 11 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shandong Luneng are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.33 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island in 62%.
Last 24 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 10W 7D 7L in their last 24 games (1.54 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 5W 7D 12L in their last 24 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 1.91 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Qingdao Youth Island been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Qingdao Youth Island in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Youth Island runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2025, when Shandong Luneng won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Qingdao Youth Island specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Shandong Luneng
2
Draws
1
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 5 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 2, Qingdao Youth Island have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Shandong Luneng 1-1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Youth Island?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 54%, Qingdao Youth Island 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Shandong Luneng and 73% for Qingdao Youth Island. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng have failed to score in 27% of games; Qingdao Youth Island in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Qingdao Youth Island?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Shandong Luneng's games and 64% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 73% of Qingdao Youth Island's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Qingdao Youth Island defy the odds to beat Shandong Luneng 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat Shandong Luneng 0-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.46 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.99 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shandong Luneng fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.10 / defence 0.83 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.90 / defence 1.23, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 69% | Draw 17% | Qingdao Youth Island 13%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Qingdao Youth Island win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 54%, Qingdao Youth Island 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Qingdao Youth Island winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.