Shandong Luneng 1-0 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Wuyuan River Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Friday 3 June 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Shandong Luneng (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng at Wuyuan River Stadium this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Hangzhou Greentown have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.40 PPG for Shandong Luneng against 2.00 for Hangzhou Greentown. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.81 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.017 / defence 0.984 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.253. Data: 14 Shandong Luneng games / 0 Hangzhou Greentown games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 54% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 20%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Hangzhou Greentown 5.00. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 1.7 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 Jun 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 54% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.81 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.017 / def 0.984 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Hangzhou Greentown xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 3 June 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Shandong Luneng 1 - 0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 54% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 1.02x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (0.85x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 14/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
54%
1.86
26%
3.83
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.86
1.05
Hangzhou Greentown xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
16%
6.14
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
3%
30.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.05 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 2D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D. It's still early in the season for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 2.00 PPG from 2 outings (1W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Shandong Luneng are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 0.50 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shandong Luneng have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Hangzhou Greentown in 0%.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Early Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 games (1.00 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Shandong Luneng or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 3-0 on 25 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Shandong Luneng
2
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 9 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 4, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 4-1 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Hangzhou Greentown?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shandong Luneng's recent games and 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shandong Luneng edge out Hangzhou Greentown 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Hangzhou Greentown 1-0 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.81 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.05 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shandong Luneng fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Hangzhou Greentown landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.02 / defence 0.98 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 14/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 54% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 20%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 50%, Hangzhou Greentown 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Shandong Luneng winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shandong Luneng conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Hangzhou Greentown shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.