Shandong Luneng 0-0 Guangzhou R&F – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Shandong Luneng take on Guangzhou R&F.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shandong Luneng and Guangzhou R&F meet at Huadu Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 July 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shandong Luneng's overall Super League record this term: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Shandong Luneng have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guangzhou R&F (all games): 2W 2D 1L across 5 Super League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Guangzhou R&F have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Shandong Luneng. A 0.60 PPG lead over Guangzhou R&F (2.20 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Shandong Luneng half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Guangzhou R&F half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 40% versus Guangzhou R&F 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shandong Luneng 20% | Guangzhou R&F 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.09 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.035 / defence 1.004 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.919 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 0.952 / away 1.078. Data: 5 Shandong Luneng games / 5 Guangzhou R&F games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 34% | Draw 38% | Guangzhou R&F 29%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.94 | Draw 2.63 | Guangzhou R&F 3.45. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Shandong Luneng 40% | Guangzhou R&F 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou R&F | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Huadu Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jul 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 34% | Draw 38% | Guangzhou R&F 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 46% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.09 / Guangzhou R&F 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.035 / def 1.004 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.919 / def 1.110 | league avg home 0.952 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Guangzhou R&F xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou R&F kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou R&F kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 18 July 2021 at Huadu Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou R&F?
Shandong Luneng 0 - 0 Guangzhou R&F.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou R&F being played?
The match is being played at Huadu Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou R&F part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou R&F is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 34% chance of winning, Guangzhou R&F a 29% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Guangzhou R&F will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou R&F have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Guangzhou R&F?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Guangzhou R&F in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 3W-2D-0L in 5 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 1.03x the league average against Guangzhou R&F's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guangzhou R&F's attack (0.92x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.96
38%
2.66
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.09
0.99
Guangzhou R&F xG
2.96
34%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 12.3 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Guangzhou R&F expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.99 for Guangzhou R&F, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou R&F?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shandong Luneng's recent record stands at 3W 2D 0L from 5 games, a 2.20 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guangzhou R&F, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 1L across 5 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Guangzhou R&F heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shandong Luneng are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou R&F are on 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guangzhou R&F in 60%.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games; Guangzhou R&F in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Early Season
Guangzhou R&F
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Guangzhou R&F in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 games (2.20 PPG), while Guangzhou R&F have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
Have Shandong Luneng or Guangzhou R&F been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Guangzhou R&F in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shandong Luneng have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guangzhou R&F — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Shandong Luneng
1
Draws
0
Guangzhou R&F
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Guangzhou R&F?
From 4 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 3, Guangzhou R&F have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Guangzhou R&F last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2022, when Shandong Luneng 2-0 Guangzhou R&F.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Guangzhou R&F?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Guangzhou R&F see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 40%, Guangzhou R&F 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Shandong Luneng) and 60% (Guangzhou R&F).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Guangzhou R&F in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Guangzhou R&F away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Guangzhou R&F?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 60% of Guangzhou R&F's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Guangzhou R&F usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Shandong Luneng's recent games and 60% of Guangzhou R&F's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shandong Luneng and Guangzhou R&F tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Guangzhou R&F in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shandong Luneng's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng and Guangzhou R&F finished level at 0-0 at Huadu Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.09 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.99 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shandong Luneng fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Guangzhou R&F landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against Guangzhou R&F attack 0.92 / defence 1.11, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 34% | Draw 38% | Guangzhou R&F 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 20%, Guangzhou R&F 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shandong Luneng managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Guangzhou R&F managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.