Qingdao Youth Island 0-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Qingdao Youth Island and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 June 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Wuhan Three Towns have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.50 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.825 / defence 1.237 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.143 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.414. Data: 14 Qingdao Youth Island games / 44 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 28% | Draw 24% | Wuhan Three Towns 48%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Wuhan Three Towns 2.08. Wuhan Three Towns hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jun 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 28% | Draw 24% | Wuhan Three Towns 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.50 / Wuhan Three Towns 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.825 / def 1.237 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.143 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Wuhan Three Towns xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 16 June 2024 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Qingdao Youth Island 0 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 28% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Wuhan Three Towns?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Wuhan Three Towns away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Qingdao Youth Island's attack rating (0.82) and Wuhan Three Towns's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (1.14x) against Qingdao Youth Island's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 14/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
28%
3.57
24%
4.25
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
3.50
2.00
Wuhan Three Towns xG
3.57
28%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
14%
7.39
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
4%
26.35
11%
9.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 2.00 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Qingdao Youth Island
2
Draws
1
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 5 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 2, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Wuhan Three Towns?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Wuhan Three Towns edge out Qingdao Youth Island 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Qingdao Youth Island 0-1 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.50 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 2.00 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Youth Island fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Wuhan Three Towns landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.82 / defence 1.24 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.14 / defence 1.17, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 28% | Draw 24% | Wuhan Three Towns 48%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.