Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Shijiazhuang Y. J. make the trip to Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium to face Qingdao Youth Island in Super League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Friday 2 August 2024 at 12:35 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Qingdao Youth Island have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.70 conceded. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s overall Super League record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Qingdao Youth Island against 0.30 for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Qingdao Youth Island, 1 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 2–3 with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Qingdao Youth Island goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Shijiazhuang Y. J. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Youth Island 62% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 57% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 2.13 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.947 / defence 1.307 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.729 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.750 / away 1.323. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Qingdao Youth Island's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Qingdao Youth Island games / 51 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 57% | Draw 21% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 22%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Qingdao Youth Island (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Youth Island 50% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60% BTTS from recent games.

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