Qingdao Jonoon 1-4 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Qingdao Jonoon host Hangzhou Greentown at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 March 2026 at 11:35 UTC.

Form Guide

Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Qingdao Jonoon's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have recorded 2W 7D 1L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Qingdao Jonoon at 1.10 PPG versus Hangzhou Greentown's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 45% of games.

Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Hangzhou Greentown 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 42% | Hangzhou Greentown 77%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.83 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.000 / defence 1.043 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.079 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.813 / away 1.136. Data: 32 Qingdao Jonoon games / 32 Hangzhou Greentown games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 27%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.70. Qingdao Jonoon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Jonoon at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Hangzhou Greentown 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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