Nantong Zhiyun 0-1 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nantong Zhiyun and Changchun Yatai meet at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Changchun Yatai's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 1.01 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.857 / defence 0.961 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.054 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.171. Data: 4 Nantong Zhiyun games / 38 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 28% | Draw 36% | Changchun Yatai 36%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 3.57 | Draw 2.78 | Changchun Yatai 2.78. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 28% | Draw 36% | Changchun Yatai 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 1.01 / Changchun Yatai 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.857 / def 0.961 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.054 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Changchun Yatai xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai?
Nantong Zhiyun 0 - 1 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 28% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 36% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Changchun Yatai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Changchun Yatai in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Changchun Yatai away split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nantong Zhiyun's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (1.05x) against Nantong Zhiyun's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
28%
3.62
36%
2.78
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
2.20
1.19
Changchun Yatai xG
3.62
28%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
8%
11.85
13%
7.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.19 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Pre-Season
Changchun Yatai
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Changchun Yatai have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nantong Zhiyun
1
Draws
3
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Changchun Yatai?
From 4 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, Changchun Yatai have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2024, when Changchun Yatai 3-2 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Changchun Yatai?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Changchun Yatai edge out Nantong Zhiyun 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Nantong Zhiyun 0-1 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 1.01 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.19 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nantong Zhiyun fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.86 / defence 0.96 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.05 / defence 0.97, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 28% | Draw 36% | Changchun Yatai 36%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.