Meizhou Kejia 2-1 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nantong Zhiyun at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Nantong Zhiyun travel to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium to take on Meizhou Kejia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 July 2024, 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Meizhou Kejia at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nantong Zhiyun stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Meizhou Kejia 0.60 PPG, Nantong Zhiyun 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Meizhou Kejia, 2 for Nantong Zhiyun and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Nantong Zhiyun winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Meizhou Kejia in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Nantong Zhiyun in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 58% versus Nantong Zhiyun 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 56% | Nantong Zhiyun 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.08 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.540 / defence 1.097 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.104 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.334. Meizhou Kejia's attack strength of 0.540 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Meizhou Kejia games / 48 Nantong Zhiyun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 25% | Draw 26% | Nantong Zhiyun 49%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Nantong Zhiyun 2.04. Nantong Zhiyun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nantong Zhiyun at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nantong Zhiyun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 50% | Nantong Zhiyun 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jul 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 25% | Draw 26% | Nantong Zhiyun 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.08 / Nantong Zhiyun 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.540 / def 1.097 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.104 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Nantong Zhiyun (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Nantong Zhiyun xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 13 July 2024 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Meizhou Kejia 2 - 1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 25% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nantong Zhiyun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Nantong Zhiyun?
Record (3 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 0W | Draws 1 | Nantong Zhiyun 2W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Meizhou Kejia's attack at 0.54x the league average against Nantong Zhiyun's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nantong Zhiyun's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantong Zhiyun Win
25%
3.98
26%
3.91
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.70
1.62
Nantong Zhiyun xG
3.98
25%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
5%
20.03
17%
6.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.62 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Meizhou Kejia have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 11W 14D 23L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nantong Zhiyun's form line: 7W 15D 26L from 48 games, 0.75 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Meizhou Kejia on 0.98 PPG, Nantong Zhiyun on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Meizhou Kejia have posted 1.21 PPG from 24 outings (7W 8D 9L).
On the road, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 4W 9D 11L from 24 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Nantong Zhiyun are on 0.94 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Nantong Zhiyun in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 11W 14D 23L in their last 48 games (0.98 PPG), while Nantong Zhiyun have gone 7W 15D 26L in their last 48 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Nantong Zhiyun away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.21 PPG; Nantong Zhiyun away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when Nantong Zhiyun won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Meizhou Kejia's record when hosting Nantong Zhiyun specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Meizhou Kejia
1
Draws
2
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 4 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, Nantong Zhiyun have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 13 July 2024, when Meizhou Kejia 2-1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Nantong Zhiyun?
Nantong Zhiyun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Meizhou Kejia at 62%, Nantong Zhiyun at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Meizhou Kejia) and 42% (Nantong Zhiyun).
On the defensive side: Meizhou Kejia have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Nantong Zhiyun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 71% of Nantong Zhiyun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Nantong Zhiyun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Meizhou Kejia's recent games and 42% of Nantong Zhiyun's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Nantong Zhiyun tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nantong Zhiyun in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Meizhou Kejia defy the odds to beat Nantong Zhiyun 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Nantong Zhiyun 2-1 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.08 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.62 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.54 / defence 1.10 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.10 / defence 1.17, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 25% | Draw 26% | Nantong Zhiyun 49%, with Nantong Zhiyun to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Meizhou Kejia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 56%, Nantong Zhiyun 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Meizhou Kejia 0.98 PPG, Nantong Zhiyun 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Meizhou Kejia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.