Henan Jianye 1-2 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Henan Jianye host Tianjin Teda at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 May 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Henan Jianye's home record at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Henan Jianye at 1.70 PPG versus Tianjin Teda's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Henan Jianye register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Tianjin Teda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Henan Jianye have won 1, Tianjin Teda 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Henan Jianye winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 49% versus Tianjin Teda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 49% | Tianjin Teda 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.34 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.944 / defence 0.966 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.232 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.370. Tianjin Teda have an above-average attack strength of 1.232 — the away xG of 1.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Henan Jianye games / 39 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 31% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 44%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Tianjin Teda 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 60% | Tianjin Teda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 31% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Henan Jianye 1.34 / Tianjin Teda 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.944 / def 0.966 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.232 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Tianjin Teda xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Henan Jianye 1 - 2 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 31% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
Record (5 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 2 | Tianjin Teda 2W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (0.94) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
31%
3.26
26%
3.89
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.97
1.63
Tianjin Teda xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
6%
16.62
11%
8.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.63 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 63 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 25W 17D 21L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 25W 22D 16L from 63 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.46 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 1.81 PPG from 31 outings (16W 8D 7L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 13W 8D 10L from 31 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.35 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 25W 17D 21L in their last 63 games (1.46 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 25W 22D 16L in their last 63 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.81 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 19 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
6
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 2, Tianjin Teda have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 52%, Tianjin Teda 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Henan Jianye) and 39% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 52% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 39% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Henan Jianye 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Henan Jianye 1-2 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.34 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.63 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.23 / defence 1.04, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 31% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 44%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 49%, Tianjin Teda 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.46 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.