Henan Jianye 1-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 33 as Henan Jianye welcome Shanghai Shenhua to Mission Hills Football Base Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 27 December 2022 at 07:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Henan Jianye have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shanghai Shenhua stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Henan Jianye carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Henan Jianye, 2 for Shanghai Shenhua and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Henan Jianye trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 45% versus Shanghai Shenhua 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Henan Jianye 40% | Shanghai Shenhua 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.22 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.058 / defence 0.823 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.987 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.360. Data: 45 Henan Jianye games / 46 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 38% | Draw 30% | Shanghai Shenhua 32%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Shanghai Shenhua 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 20% | Shanghai Shenhua 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Dec 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 38% | Draw 30% | Shanghai Shenhua 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Henan Jianye 1.22 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.058 / def 0.823 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.987 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Shanghai Shenhua xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 07:00 on Tuesday 27 December 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Henan Jianye 1 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 38% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (2 meetings): Henan Jianye 0W | Draws 0 | Shanghai Shenhua 2W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Shanghai Shenhua's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
38%
2.64
30%
3.32
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.33
1.10
Shanghai Shenhua xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
13%
7.96
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.10 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Henan Jianye come into this having played 53 games, going 22W 16D 15L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Shanghai Shenhua sit at 1.57 PPG from 53 outings (22W 17D 14L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.55 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Henan Jianye's home form reads 15W 5D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Shanghai Shenhua have taken 1.38 points per game from 26 outings (9W 9D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.34 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Shanghai Shenhua in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 22W 16D 15L in their last 53 games (1.55 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 22W 17D 14L in their last 53 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.92 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jan 2022, when Shanghai Shenhua won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
7
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 10 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 1, Shanghai Shenhua have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Henan Jianye 0-3 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 50%, Shanghai Shenhua 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Henan Jianye) and 38% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Shanghai Shenhua in 31%; Shanghai Shenhua in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 54% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 38% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye and Shanghai Shenhua finished level at 1-1 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.22 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.10 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.06 / defence 0.82 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.99 / defence 0.81, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 38% | Draw 30% | Shanghai Shenhua 32%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 40%, Shanghai Shenhua 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.55 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.