Henan Jianye 2-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan meet at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 June 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Beijing Guoan (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Beijing Guoan away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Henan Jianye, 3 for Beijing Guoan and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2023, ended 1–3 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 49% versus Beijing Guoan 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 49% | Beijing Guoan 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.07 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.896 / defence 1.119 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.999 / defence 0.757. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.422. Beijing Guoan's defence strength of 0.757 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Henan Jianye games / 44 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 24% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 48%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Beijing Guoan 2.08. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 60% | Beijing Guoan 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jun 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 24% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Henan Jianye 1.07 / Beijing Guoan 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.896 / def 1.119 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.999 / def 0.757 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Beijing Guoan xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 June 2024 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
Henan Jianye 2 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 24% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan?
Record (4 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 0 | Beijing Guoan 3W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (1.00x) against Henan Jianye's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
24%
4.13
28%
3.63
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.66
1.59
Beijing Guoan xG
4.13
24%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
5%
20.23
17%
6.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.59 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Henan Jianye's recent record stands at 25W 17D 21L from 63 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 31W 16D 16L across 63 games — 1.73 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Henan Jianye against 1.73 for Beijing Guoan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Henan Jianye have managed 16W 8D 7L from 31 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 14W 8D 9L across 31 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.73 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 25W 17D 21L in their last 63 games (1.46 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 31W 16D 16L in their last 63 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.81 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Henan Jianye have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 3-0 on 7 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Henan Jianye
1
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan?
From 9 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 4, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Beijing Guoan 1-2 Henan Jianye.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 52%, Beijing Guoan 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Henan Jianye) and 64% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Henan Jianye's games and 61% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Henan Jianye's matches and 64% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Henan Jianye defy the odds to beat Beijing Guoan 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Beijing Guoan 2-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.07 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.59 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.90 / defence 1.12 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.00 / defence 0.76, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 24% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 48%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Henan Jianye win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 49%, Beijing Guoan 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.46 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.