Hebei Zhongji 1-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua make the trip to Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium to face Hebei Zhongji in Super League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Monday 10 May 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 0.98 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.976 / defence 1.144 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.056 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 0.867 / away 1.296. Data: 3 Hebei Zhongji games / 3 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 20% | Draw 33% | Shanghai Shenhua 47%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 5.00 | Draw 3.03 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.13. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 10 May 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 20% | Draw 33% | Shanghai Shenhua 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Hebei Zhongji 0.98 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.976 / def 1.144 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.056 / def 1.156 | league avg home 0.867 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Shanghai Shenhua xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 10 May 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Hebei Zhongji 1 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 20% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 47% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Shanghai Shenhua?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hebei Zhongji's attack at 0.98x the league average against Shanghai Shenhua's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (1.06x) against Hebei Zhongji's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
20%
4.99
33%
3.07
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
2.54
1.56
Shanghai Shenhua xG
4.99
20%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
4%
23.88
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.3 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 1.56 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Pre-Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hebei Zhongji have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Hebei Zhongji
2
Draws
2
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 4 meetings on record, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 7 July 2022, when Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Hebei Zhongji and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Hebei Zhongji and Shanghai Shenhua share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Hebei Zhongji and Shanghai Shenhua drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 0.98 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.56 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.98 / defence 1.14 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.06 / defence 1.16, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 20% | Draw 33% | Shanghai Shenhua 47%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.