Hangzhou Greentown 2-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Shijiazhuang Y. J. travel to Huanglong Sports Center Stadium to take on Hangzhou Greentown. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 September 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hangzhou Greentown — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 7W 0D 3L at Huanglong Sports Center Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Hangzhou Greentown are significantly better at Huanglong Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shijiazhuang Y. J. are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Hangzhou Greentown, 1 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 64% and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 76% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.64 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.360 / defence 1.291 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.825 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.339. Hangzhou Greentown carry an above-average attack strength of 1.360 — their λ of 2.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 55 Hangzhou Greentown games / 55 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 64% | Draw 17% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 19%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.56 | Draw 5.88 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (64%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.07. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.07 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.64 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shijiazhuang Y. J. (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.
The Poisson model projects 4.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 90% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Huanglong Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 64% | Draw 17% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 71% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 2.64 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.360 / def 1.291 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.825 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.64
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
71%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Huanglong Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Hangzhou Greentown 2 - 2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Huanglong Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 64% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 19% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (5 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 2W | Draws 2 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 1.36x the league average against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.5%), 1-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
64%
1.57
17%
5.73
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
6.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.64
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
4.07
1.43
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.73
17%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.40
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
7%
14.07
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
1%
73.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 2.64 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.43 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 4.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 26W 9D 20L from 55 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shijiazhuang Y. J., meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 27L across 55 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hangzhou Greentown by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shijiazhuang Y. J. heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 17W 3D 7L from 27 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Hangzhou Greentown are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s away record stands at 5W 7D 15L across 27 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.05 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 26W 9D 20L in their last 55 games (1.58 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 15W 13D 27L in their last 55 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 2.00 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when Hangzhou Greentown won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hangzhou Greentown
3
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 6 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2024, when Hangzhou Greentown 2-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 63%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Hangzhou Greentown and 59% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 59% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 59% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown and Shijiazhuang Y. J. finished level at 2-2 at Huanglong Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.64 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.43 xG, a combined 4.07. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.36 / defence 1.29 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.82 / defence 1.07, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 64% | Draw 17% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 19%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 76%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.