Hangzhou Greentown 2-0 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown host Dalian Aerbin at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 6 July 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hangzhou Greentown — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 1L across 4 games at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium this term (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Aerbin stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Hangzhou Greentown) versus 1.10 (Dalian Aerbin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hangzhou Greentown, 0 for Dalian Aerbin and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Dalian Aerbin in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 40% versus Dalian Aerbin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hangzhou Greentown 20% | Dalian Aerbin 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 0.98 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.708 / defence 0.856 | Dalian Aerbin attack 1.115 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.144. Hangzhou Greentown's attack strength of 0.708 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Hangzhou Greentown games / 22 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 30% | Draw 34% | Dalian Aerbin 36%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Dalian Aerbin 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dalian Aerbin at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 0% | Dalian Aerbin 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Jul 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 30% | Draw 34% | Dalian Aerbin 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 0.98 / Dalian Aerbin 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.708 / def 0.856 | Dalian Aerbin attack 1.115 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Dalian Aerbin xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 6 July 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin?
Hangzhou Greentown 2 - 0 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 30% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (1 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 0W | Draws 1 | Dalian Aerbin 0W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Aerbin in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (0.71) and Dalian Aerbin's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
30%
3.31
34%
2.98
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.07
1.09
Dalian Aerbin xG
3.31
30%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
14%
7.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.8 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.09 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hangzhou Greentown come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 4D 3L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dalian Aerbin sit at 1.10 PPG from 10 outings (2W 5D 3L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hangzhou Greentown on 1.30 PPG, Dalian Aerbin on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hangzhou Greentown's home form reads 1W 2D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Aerbin have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.20 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 games (1.30 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.25 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hangzhou Greentown go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Hangzhou Greentown won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Dalian Aerbin specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
0
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Aerbin?
From 4 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 26 August 2023, when Hangzhou Greentown 3-0 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Aerbin?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Hangzhou Greentown 0% BTTS, Dalian Aerbin 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 75% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Hangzhou Greentown have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 50% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 75% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Dalian Aerbin 2-0 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 0.98 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.09 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dalian Aerbin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.71 / defence 0.86 against Dalian Aerbin attack 1.11 / defence 0.98, drawn from 8/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 30% | Draw 34% | Dalian Aerbin 36%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Hangzhou Greentown win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 20%, Dalian Aerbin 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.30 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.