Guangzhou R&F 1-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Shenzhen Ruby FC travel to Yuexiushan Stadium to take on Guangzhou R&F. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 4 October 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Guangzhou R&F — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yuexiushan Stadium, Guangzhou R&F have gone 2W 0D 8L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Super League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guangzhou R&F 0.60 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Guangzhou R&F, 1 for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Guangzhou R&F winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Guangzhou R&F in-play tendencies (40 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play tendencies (40 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou R&F 48% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou R&F 52% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou R&F 1.48 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou R&F attack 0.756 / defence 1.411 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.930 / defence 1.432. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.300. Guangzhou R&F's attack strength of 0.756 is below the league average — the 1.48 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.432 — this is suppressing Guangzhou R&F's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Guangzhou R&F games / 32 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 33% | Draw 25% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 42%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou R&F 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shenzhen Ruby FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shenzhen Ruby FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Guangzhou R&F 30% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Yuexiushan Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 33% | Draw 25% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Guangzhou R&F 1.48 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou R&F attack 0.756 / def 1.411 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.930 / def 1.432 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Shenzhen Ruby FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Guangzhou R&F xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 12:30 on Tuesday 4 October 2022 at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Guangzhou R&F 1 - 1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou R&F a 33% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shenzhen Ruby FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Record (2 meetings): Guangzhou R&F 1W | Draws 0 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W.
What form are Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guangzhou R&F's attack rating (0.76) and Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack versus Guangzhou R&F's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenzhen Ruby FC Win
33%
3.05
25%
4.03
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Guangzhou R&F xG
Total xG
3.19
1.71
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
3.05
33%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
18%
5.51
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
6%
16.81
10%
10.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Guangzhou R&F and 1.71 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guangzhou R&F come into this having played 40 games, going 9W 8D 23L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shenzhen Ruby FC sit at 1.27 PPG from 40 outings (15W 6D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guangzhou R&F on 0.88 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Guangzhou R&F's home form reads 6W 3D 12L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Shenzhen Ruby FC have taken 1.14 points per game from 21 outings (7W 3D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Guangzhou R&F are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 1.35 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Guangzhou R&F have gone 9W 8D 23L in their last 40 games (0.88 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 15W 6D 19L in their last 40 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou R&F at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou R&F at home: 1.00 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Dec 2022, when Guangzhou R&F won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guangzhou R&F's record when hosting Shenzhen Ruby FC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Guangzhou R&F
1
Draws
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Guangzhou R&F have won 2, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 December 2022, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 Guangzhou R&F.
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Guangzhou R&F have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guangzhou R&F are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou R&F 52%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Guangzhou R&F and 71% for Shenzhen Ruby FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guangzhou R&F have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou R&F home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou R&F play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Guangzhou R&F's games and 67% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Guangzhou R&F's matches and 71% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Guangzhou R&F have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yuexiushan Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou R&F 1.48 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.71 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou R&F attack 0.76 / defence 1.41 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.43, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou R&F 33% | Draw 25% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 42%, with Shenzhen Ruby FC to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou R&F 52%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (40 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (40 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guangzhou R&F 0.88 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Guangzhou R&F (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.