Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Guangzhou Evergrande FC welcome Shenzhen Ruby FC to Tianhe Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 May 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.06 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.134 / defence 1.224 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.937 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 0.810 / away 1.397. Data: 2 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games / 2 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 22% | Draw 32% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.17. Shenzhen Ruby FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shenzhen Ruby FC at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shenzhen Ruby FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tianhe Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 May 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 22% | Draw 32% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.06 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.134 / def 1.224 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.937 / def 1.159 | league avg home 0.810 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Shenzhen Ruby FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 2 May 2021 at Tianhe Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2 - 0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Tianhe Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 22% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shenzhen Ruby FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenzhen Ruby FC Win
22%
4.62
32%
3.12
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Total xG
2.67
1.60
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
4.62
22%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
4%
22.91
16%
6.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 1.60 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Pre-Season
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shenzhen Ruby FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's record when hosting Shenzhen Ruby FC specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0
Draws
2
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 2, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2022, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou Evergrande FC home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-0 at Tianhe Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.06 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.60 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shenzhen Ruby FC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.13 / defence 1.22 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.16, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou Evergrande FC 22% | Draw 32% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 46%, with Shenzhen Ruby FC to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Guangzhou Evergrande FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.