Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-0 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beijing Guoan make the trip to Tianhe Stadium to face Guangzhou Evergrande FC in Super League, Championship Round - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 December 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC at Tianhe Stadium this season: 6W 3D 0L from 9 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.44 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Beijing Guoan's overall Super League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 2W 1D 6L from 9 away outings — 0.78 PPG. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.78 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Guangzhou Evergrande FC against 1.70 for Beijing Guoan. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, 1 for Beijing Guoan and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Guangzhou Evergrande FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 50% versus Beijing Guoan 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 50% | Beijing Guoan 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.82 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.353 / defence 1.064 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.749 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Guangzhou Evergrande FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.353 — their λ of 1.82 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 14 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games / 14 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 54% | Draw 27% | Beijing Guoan 19%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Beijing Guoan 5.26. Guangzhou Evergrande FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guangzhou Evergrande FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 56% | Beijing Guoan 44%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Tianhe Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Dec 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 54% | Draw 27% | Beijing Guoan 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.82 / Beijing Guoan 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.353 / def 1.064 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.749 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou Evergrande FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Beijing Guoan xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 26 December 2021 at Tianhe Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1 - 0 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Tianhe Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Beijing Guoan is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 54% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou Evergrande FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Beijing Guoan?
Record (1 meetings): Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0W | Draws 0 | Beijing Guoan 1W.
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Beijing Guoan in?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack at 1.35x the league average against Beijing Guoan's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (0.75x) against Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou Evergrande FC Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.76
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Total xG
2.84
1.02
Beijing Guoan xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
3%
31.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 1.02 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent record stands at 10W 5D 3L from 18 games, a 1.94 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 6L across 18 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.94 PPG for Guangzhou Evergrande FC against 1.56 for Beijing Guoan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have managed 6W 3D 0L from 9 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 2W 1D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beijing Guoan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guangzhou Evergrande FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.28 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 10W 5D 3L in their last 18 games (1.94 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 8W 4D 6L in their last 18 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home: 2.33 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won 4-1 on 29 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Beijing Guoan?
From 4 meetings on record, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 1, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 23 December 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-3 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 56%, Beijing Guoan 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC) and 56% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guangzhou Evergrande FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Beijing Guoan in 33%; Beijing Guoan in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou Evergrande FC home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou Evergrande FC play Beijing Guoan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent matches and 44% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's matches and 56% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guangzhou Evergrande FC edge out Beijing Guoan 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Beijing Guoan 1-0 at Tianhe Stadium, Championship Round - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.82 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.02 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Guangzhou Evergrande FC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Beijing Guoan landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.35 / defence 1.06 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.75 / defence 1.16, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou Evergrande FC 54% | Draw 27% | Beijing Guoan 19%, with Guangzhou Evergrande FC to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 50%, Beijing Guoan 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.94 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guangzhou Evergrande FC win broke the near-deadlock. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.