Dalian Aerbin 2-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Aerbin vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Puwan Stadium plays host to Dalian Aerbin versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. in Super League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Thursday 18 August 2022 at 12:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Dalian Aerbin have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Dalian Aerbin have posted 2W 3D 5L at Puwan Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Dalian Aerbin have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Dalian Aerbin, 2 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Dalian Aerbin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Shijiazhuang Y. J. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 47% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 44% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.60 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.940 / defence 1.100 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.819 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.287. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing Dalian Aerbin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Dalian Aerbin games / 26 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 48% | Draw 25% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 28%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.57. Dalian Aerbin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Dalian Aerbin at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Aerbin 60% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 70% BTTS from recent games.

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