Dalian Aerbin 2-0 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 40%, yet in-form Chengdu Better City provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Dalian Aerbin welcome Chengdu Better City to Puwan Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Dalian Aerbin have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Puwan Stadium, Dalian Aerbin have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chengdu Better City stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Chengdu Better City have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Chengdu Better City — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, Chengdu Better City 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Chengdu Better City winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Dalian Aerbin in-play tendencies (21 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Chengdu Better City in-play tendencies (21 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 57% versus Chengdu Better City 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 48% | Chengdu Better City 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.29 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.103 / defence 1.081 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.795 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.289. Data: 33 Dalian Aerbin games / 19 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 40% | Draw 28% | Chengdu Better City 32%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Chengdu Better City 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Chengdu Better City (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Dalian Aerbin 70% | Chengdu Better City 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 40% | Draw 28% | Chengdu Better City 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.29 / Chengdu Better City 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.103 / def 1.081 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.795 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Chengdu Better City xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City?
Dalian Aerbin 2 - 0 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 40% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City?
Record (2 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 0W | Draws 1 | Chengdu Better City 1W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dalian Aerbin's attack at 1.10x the league average against Chengdu Better City's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
40%
2.48
28%
3.58
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.40
1.11
Chengdu Better City xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.11 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Dalian Aerbin have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 5W 8D 8L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chengdu Better City's form line: 9W 8D 4L from 21 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chengdu Better City are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dalian Aerbin.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dalian Aerbin have posted 1.23 PPG from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L).
On the road, Chengdu Better City have gone 7W 3D 3L from 13 away games — 1.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.05 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Chengdu Better City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 5W 8D 8L in their last 21 games (1.10 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 9W 8D 4L in their last 21 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.23 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Dec 2022, when Chengdu Better City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Dalian Aerbin
2
Draws
3
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City?
From 6 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, Chengdu Better City have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2023, when Chengdu Better City 4-1 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 62%, Chengdu Better City 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Dalian Aerbin) and 38% (Chengdu Better City).
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City in 46%; Chengdu Better City in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Chengdu Better City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 38% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 38% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dalian Aerbin cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Chengdu Better City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin beat Chengdu Better City 2-0 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.29 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.11 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Chengdu Better City landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 1.10 / defence 1.08 against Chengdu Better City attack 0.80 / defence 0.91, drawn from 33/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 40% | Draw 28% | Chengdu Better City 32%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 48%, Chengdu Better City 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (21 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (21 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Dalian Aerbin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.