Chongqing Tongliang Long 2-3 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chongqing Longxing Football Stadium plays host to Chongqing Tongliang Long versus Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 30 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.14 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.805 / defence 0.829 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.987 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.323. Data: 14 Chongqing Tongliang Long games / 44 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 37% | Draw 29% | Beijing Guoan 34%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Tongliang Long 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Beijing Guoan 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chongqing Tongliang Long at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chongqing Tongliang Long if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Chongqing Longxing Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Tongliang Long 37% | Draw 29% | Beijing Guoan 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.14 / Beijing Guoan 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.805 / def 0.829 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.987 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Chongqing Tongliang Long (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Beijing Guoan xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 30 May 2026 at Chongqing Longxing Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Beijing Guoan?
Chongqing Tongliang Long 2 - 3 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Chongqing Longxing Football Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 37% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chongqing Tongliang Long the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Chongqing Tongliang Long and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Beijing Guoan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Beijing Guoan in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Beijing Guoan away split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chongqing Tongliang Long's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (0.99x) against Chongqing Tongliang Long's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 14/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chongqing Tongliang Long Win
37%
2.70
29%
3.46
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Chongqing Tongliang Long xG
Total xG
2.23
1.08
Beijing Guoan xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
11%
9.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Chongqing Tongliang Long and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1.08 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Pre-Season
Beijing Guoan
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Chongqing Tongliang Long
0
Draws
1
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Beijing Guoan?
From 1 meetings on record, Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 0, Beijing Guoan have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chongqing Tongliang Long and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Chongqing Tongliang Long 2-3 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chongqing Tongliang Long home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Beijing Guoan defy the odds to beat Chongqing Tongliang Long 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Chongqing Tongliang Long 2-3 at Chongqing Longxing Football Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.14 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.08 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Chongqing Tongliang Long beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beijing Guoan outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chongqing Tongliang Long attack 0.81 / defence 0.83 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.99 / defence 0.88, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chongqing Tongliang Long 37% | Draw 29% | Beijing Guoan 34%, with Chongqing Tongliang Long to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.