Chongqing Lifan 3-2 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chongqing Lifan vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Henan Jianye travel to Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium to take on Chongqing Lifan. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 May 2021, 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Lifan 0.84 xG and Henan Jianye 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Lifan attack 0.972 / defence 1.337 | Henan Jianye attack 0.699 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 0.842 / away 1.220. Data: 3 Chongqing Lifan games / 3 Henan Jianye games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chongqing Lifan 23% | Draw 38% | Henan Jianye 39%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Lifan 4.35 | Draw 2.63 | Henan Jianye 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Lifan vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Lifan 23% | Draw 38% | Henan Jianye 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 43% | xG Chongqing Lifan 0.84 / Henan Jianye 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Lifan attack 0.972 / def 1.337 | Henan Jianye attack 0.699 / def 1.025 | league avg home 0.842 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Chongqing Lifan xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Henan Jianye xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Lifan vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Chongqing Lifan vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 9 May 2021 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Chongqing Lifan vs Henan Jianye?
Chongqing Lifan 3 - 2 Henan Jianye.
Where is Chongqing Lifan vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Lifan vs Henan Jianye part of?
Chongqing Lifan vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Lifan vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Lifan a 23% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 39% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Lifan vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Chongqing Lifan and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Lifan vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Lifan and Henan Jianye?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chongqing Lifan and Henan Jianye in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chongqing Lifan's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Chongqing Lifan's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
23%
4.38
38%
2.60
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Chongqing Lifan xG
Total xG
1.98
1.14
Henan Jianye xG
4.38
23%
Home win
2.60
38%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
7%
13.68
17%
5.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 15.8 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chongqing Lifan vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Chongqing Lifan and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Chongqing Lifan and 1.14 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Chongqing Lifan vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chongqing Lifan
Pre-Season
Henan Jianye
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Chongqing Lifan
0
Draws
1
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Lifan and Henan Jianye?
From 2 meetings on record, Chongqing Lifan have won 1, Henan Jianye have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chongqing Lifan and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2021, when Henan Jianye 1-0 Chongqing Lifan.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chongqing Lifan home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Chongqing Lifan defy the odds to beat Henan Jianye 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chongqing Lifan beat Henan Jianye 3-2 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chongqing Lifan 0.84 xG and Henan Jianye 1.14 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Chongqing Lifan beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Henan Jianye outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chongqing Lifan attack 0.97 / defence 1.34 against Henan Jianye attack 0.70 / defence 1.02, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chongqing Lifan 23% | Draw 38% | Henan Jianye 39%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Chongqing Lifan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.