Chengdu Better City 5-1 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 72% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chengdu Better City face Qingdao Youth Island.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Chengdu Better City welcome Qingdao Youth Island to Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park in Super League (matchday 4). Kick-off is Friday 3 April 2026 at 12:35 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Chengdu Better City stand at 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Chengdu Better City at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Chengdu Better City are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Youth Island — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Qingdao Youth Island's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Chengdu Better City) versus 1.30 (Qingdao Youth Island). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Chengdu Better City, 0 for Qingdao Youth Island and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2025, ended Chengdu Better City 2–2 Qingdao Youth Island — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chengdu Better City trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Qingdao Youth Island trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 58% versus Qingdao Youth Island 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 60% | Qingdao Youth Island 57%). Note also that Qingdao Youth Island surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Chengdu Better City recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 2.42 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.169 / defence 0.855 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.875 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.865 / away 1.150. Data: built from Chengdu Better City's last 33 games and Qingdao Youth Island's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 72% | Draw 17% | Qingdao Youth Island 11%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.39 | Draw 5.99 | Qingdao Youth Island 8.76. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (72%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chengdu Better City 60% (last 10 home games) | Qingdao Youth Island 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Chengdu Better City 33 games, Qingdao Youth Island 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, matchday 4 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park • Kick-off: Friday 3 April 2026 at 12:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 72% | Draw 17% | Qingdao Youth Island 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Chengdu Better City 2.42 / Qingdao Youth Island 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.169 / def 0.855 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.875 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.865 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Qingdao Youth Island xG
53%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island FAQs
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 12:35 UK time on Friday 3 April 2026 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Chengdu Better City 5 - 1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Super League fixture (matchday 4) (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 72% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chengdu Better City's attack rating (1.17) and Qingdao Youth Island's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 2.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chengdu Better City's last 33 games and Qingdao Youth Island's last 33, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 3-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
72%
1.39
17%
5.99
11%
8.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
3.28
0.86
Qingdao Youth Island xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.99
17%
Draw
8.76
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
9%
11.30
Win to Nil
30%
3.29
1%
99.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 0.86 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chengdu Better City's recent record stands at 35W 14D 11L from 60 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Qingdao Youth Island, meanwhile, have gone 18W 18D 24L across 60 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Youth Island heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chengdu Better City have managed 21W 5D 4L from their last 30 home games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Qingdao Youth Island's away record stands at 9W 6D 15L across their last 30 away games, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chengdu Better City are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.33 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island in 60%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
Chengdu Better City (Home) vs Qingdao Youth Island (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island Form FAQs
What form are Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 35W 14D 11L in their last 60 games (1.98 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 18W 18D 24L in their last 60 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.27 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Qingdao Youth Island been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Qingdao Youth Island in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 17 July 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 May 2024, when Chengdu Better City won Chengdu Better City 7-0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Qingdao Youth Island specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Chengdu Better City
4
Draws
0
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Chengdu Better City have won 2, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 July 2026: Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 50%, Qingdao Youth Island 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Chengdu Better City and 63% for Qingdao Youth Island. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Qingdao Youth Island in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Chengdu Better City's games and 60% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 63% of Qingdao Youth Island's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 93% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 87% of Qingdao Youth Island's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chengdu Better City run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Qingdao Youth Island.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Qingdao Youth Island 5-1 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 2.42 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.86 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Chengdu Better City beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.17 / defence 0.85 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.88 / defence 1.11, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 72% | Draw 17% | Qingdao Youth Island 11%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 60%, Qingdao Youth Island 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.23 average — above their attacking norm. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.