Changchun Yatai 2-3 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Tianjin Teda travel to Wuyuan River Stadium to take on Changchun Yatai. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 November 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wuyuan River Stadium, Changchun Yatai have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Wuyuan River Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Changchun Yatai 1.20 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Tianjin Teda 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Changchun Yatai in-play and half-time data (46 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (46 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 54% versus Tianjin Teda 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 50% | Tianjin Teda 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 0.95 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.667 / defence 0.812 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.919 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.320. Changchun Yatai's attack strength of 0.667 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Changchun Yatai games / 38 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 33% | Draw 33% | Tianjin Teda 34%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Tianjin Teda 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 30% | Tianjin Teda 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 33% | Draw 33% | Tianjin Teda 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Changchun Yatai 0.95 / Tianjin Teda 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.667 / def 0.812 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.919 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Tianjin Teda xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Changchun Yatai 2 - 3 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 33% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda?
Record (3 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 2 | Tianjin Teda 0W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 0.67x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
33%
3.07
33%
3.03
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
1.93
0.98
Tianjin Teda xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
12%
8.23
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 14.3 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 0.98 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Changchun Yatai have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 18W 16D 12L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 14W 11D 21L from 46 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Changchun Yatai on 1.52 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Changchun Yatai have posted 1.58 PPG from 24 outings (10W 8D 6L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 7W 7D 10L from 24 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.13 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 18W 16D 12L in their last 46 games (1.52 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 14W 11D 21L in their last 46 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.58 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Jul 2021, when Changchun Yatai won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
6
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Tianjin Teda 2-2 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 46%, Tianjin Teda 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Changchun Yatai and 29% for Tianjin Teda.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Tianjin Teda in 33%; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 29% of games; Tianjin Teda in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 42% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 29% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Changchun Yatai 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Changchun Yatai 2-3 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 0.95 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.98 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Changchun Yatai beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tianjin Teda outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.67 / defence 0.81 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.92 / defence 0.97, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 33% | Draw 33% | Tianjin Teda 34%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 50%, Tianjin Teda 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (46 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (46 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.52 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.