Changchun Yatai 4-0 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 53%, yet in-form Qingdao Youth Island provide a compelling counter-argument — this Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

Qingdao Youth Island travel to Changchun Sports Center Stadium to take on Changchun Yatai in Super League (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 09:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Changchun Yatai stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.70 conceded. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Changchun Yatai's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Qingdao Youth Island have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Qingdao Youth Island away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Qingdao Youth Island — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Changchun Yatai have won 0, Qingdao Youth Island 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 May 2024, ended Changchun Yatai 2–2 Qingdao Youth Island — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Changchun Yatai trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

Qingdao Youth Island trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Changchun Yatai 63% and Qingdao Youth Island 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 67% | Qingdao Youth Island 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Changchun Yatai surrender their half-time lead 67% of the time, while Qingdao Youth Island have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.96 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.082 / defence 1.057 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.892 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.871 / away 1.357. Data: built from Changchun Yatai's last 57 games and Qingdao Youth Island's last 27.

Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 53% | Draw 22% | Qingdao Youth Island 25%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 1.88 | Draw 4.56 | Qingdao Youth Island 4.02. Changchun Yatai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.96 / 1.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Changchun Yatai are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Qingdao Youth Island (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Changchun Yatai's last 10 home games and Qingdao Youth Island's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Changchun Yatai 50% (last 10 home games) | Qingdao Youth Island 60% (last 10 away games).

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