Changchun Yatai 1-0 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Meizhou Kejia travel to Changchun's People Stadium to take on Changchun Yatai. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 October 2022, 08:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Changchun Yatai — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Changchun's People Stadium, Changchun Yatai have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League games this season, Meizhou Kejia have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Meizhou Kejia have posted 3W 3D 3L from 9 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Changchun Yatai 1.40 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Meizhou Kejia in-play tendencies (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 57% versus Meizhou Kejia 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 52% | Meizhou Kejia 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.36 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.729 / defence 0.950 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.816 / defence 1.353. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.287. Changchun Yatai's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Meizhou Kejia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.353 — this is suppressing Changchun Yatai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Changchun Yatai games / 21 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 45% | Draw 28% | Meizhou Kejia 27%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Meizhou Kejia 3.70. Changchun Yatai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 40% | Meizhou Kejia 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 45% | Draw 28% | Meizhou Kejia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.36 / Meizhou Kejia 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.729 / def 0.950 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.816 / def 1.353 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Meizhou Kejia xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 0 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 45% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (0.73) and Meizhou Kejia's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.52
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.36
1.00
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.11
52%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
7%
14.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.00 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Changchun Yatai have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 6W 8D 7L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Meizhou Kejia's form line: 9W 6D 6L from 21 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Changchun Yatai on 1.24 PPG, Meizhou Kejia on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Changchun Yatai have posted 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L).
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 3W 3D 3L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Meizhou Kejia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.52 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 6W 8D 7L in their last 21 games (1.24 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 9W 6D 6L in their last 21 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Meizhou Kejia's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 0.89 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Changchun Yatai have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Changchun Yatai
0
Draws
5
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 3, Meizhou Kejia have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-0 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 44%, Meizhou Kejia 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Changchun Yatai and 33% for Meizhou Kejia.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 33%; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 33% of games; Meizhou Kejia in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Meizhou Kejia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 33% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 33% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Changchun Yatai edge out Meizhou Kejia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Meizhou Kejia 1-0 at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.36 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.00 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Meizhou Kejia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.73 / defence 0.95 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.82 / defence 1.35, drawn from 35/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 45% | Draw 28% | Meizhou Kejia 27%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 52%, Meizhou Kejia 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.24 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.