Changchun Yatai 2-4 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Meizhou Kejia travel to Changchun's People Stadium to take on Changchun Yatai. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 10 May 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Changchun Yatai — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Changchun's People Stadium, Changchun Yatai have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Changchun's People Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League games this season, Meizhou Kejia have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Super League this season, Meizhou Kejia have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Changchun Yatai 1.30 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Changchun Yatai's 30% rate and Meizhou Kejia's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Changchun Yatai, 1 for Meizhou Kejia and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2022, ended 0–1 with Meizhou Kejia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 17% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Meizhou Kejia in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 53% versus Meizhou Kejia 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 53% | Meizhou Kejia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.41 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.140 / defence 1.051 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.926 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.186. Data: 39 Changchun Yatai games / 39 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 39% | Draw 34% | Meizhou Kejia 27%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Meizhou Kejia 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 56% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Changchun Yatai 30% | Meizhou Kejia 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 39% | Draw 34% | Meizhou Kejia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 56% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.41 / Meizhou Kejia 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.140 / def 1.051 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.926 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Meizhou Kejia xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 10 May 2023 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia?
Changchun Yatai 2 - 4 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 39% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (2 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 0 | Meizhou Kejia 1W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (1.14) and Meizhou Kejia's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
39%
2.56
34%
2.95
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.56
1.15
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
7%
15.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.15 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, Changchun Yatai have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 11W 11D 12L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Meizhou Kejia's form line: 14W 7D 13L from 34 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Changchun Yatai on 1.29 PPG, Meizhou Kejia on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Changchun Yatai have posted 1.18 PPG from 17 outings (5W 5D 7L).
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 5W 4D 8L from 17 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.26 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 11W 11D 12L in their last 34 games (1.29 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 14W 7D 13L in their last 34 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.18 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Meizhou Kejia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Meizhou Kejia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Changchun Yatai have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Changchun Yatai
0
Draws
5
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 3, Meizhou Kejia have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-0 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 47%, Meizhou Kejia 24% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Changchun Yatai) and 41% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 35%; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 35% of games; Meizhou Kejia in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Meizhou Kejia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 24% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 41% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Meizhou Kejia cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Changchun Yatai 2-4 at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.41 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.15 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia outscored their 1.15 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.14 / defence 1.05 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 39% | Draw 34% | Meizhou Kejia 27%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Meizhou Kejia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 53%, Meizhou Kejia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.29 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Meizhou Kejia win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.