Changchun Yatai 1-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 54%, yet in-form Hangzhou Greentown provide a compelling counter-argument — this Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wuyuan River Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Wednesday 29 June 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Changchun Yatai have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai's home record at Wuyuan River Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Wuyuan River Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Hangzhou Greentown have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hangzhou Greentown are 0.60 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai in recent Super League fixtures (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Changchun Yatai lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Jun 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.76 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.066 / defence 0.829 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.028 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.149. Data: 20 Changchun Yatai games / 6 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 54% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 19%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Hangzhou Greentown 5.26. Changchun Yatai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hangzhou Greentown (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 1.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Jun 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 54% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.76 / Hangzhou Greentown 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.066 / def 0.829 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.028 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Hangzhou Greentown xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:30 on Wednesday 29 June 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 54% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (1 meetings): Changchun Yatai 0W | Draws 1 | Hangzhou Greentown 0W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 1.07x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.03x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 20/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.77
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.74
0.98
Hangzhou Greentown xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
3%
30.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 0.98 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 0L across 2 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hangzhou Greentown by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Changchun Yatai heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 0.50 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown in 0%.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Early Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Changchun Yatai or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 0W 4D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
5
Draws
2
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 8 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Changchun Yatai 3-3 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Hangzhou Greentown?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai and Hangzhou Greentown finished level at 1-1 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.76 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 0.98 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.07 / defence 0.83 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.03 / defence 1.15, drawn from 20/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 54% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 19%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 0%, Hangzhou Greentown 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hangzhou Greentown shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.