Beijing Guoan 4-0 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu make the trip to Beijing Workers' Stadium to face Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 7 August 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Beijing Workers' Stadium, Beijing Guoan have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sichuan Jiuniu (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Beijing Guoan's favour (1.90 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Beijing Guoan 2W, Sichuan Jiuniu 3W, 0D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Sichuan Jiuniu — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 66% and Sichuan Jiuniu 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 66% | Sichuan Jiuniu 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.16 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.018 / defence 0.936 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.814 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.331. Sichuan Jiuniu bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Beijing Guoan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Beijing Guoan games / 51 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 63% | Draw 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 17%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Sichuan Jiuniu 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 70% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Beijing Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Aug 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 63% | Draw 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 56% | xG Beijing Guoan 2.16 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.018 / def 0.936 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.814 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 7 August 2026 at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Beijing Guoan 4 - 0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 63% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (5 meetings): Beijing Guoan 2W | Draws 0 | Sichuan Jiuniu 3W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.02) and Sichuan Jiuniu's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.81x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
63%
1.58
20%
5.03
17%
5.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.17
1.01
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.58
63%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
5.98
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
12%
8.64
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
2%
51.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.01 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 25W 13D 12L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form line: 15W 5D 30L from 50 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sichuan Jiuniu.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Beijing Guoan have posted 1.92 PPG from 24 outings (14W 4D 6L).
On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 3W 2D 19L from 24 away games — 0.46 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sichuan Jiuniu's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beijing Guoan are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.28 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 25W 13D 12L in their last 50 games (1.76 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 15W 5D 30L in their last 50 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.92 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won 4-0 on 7 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
0
Draws
3
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 6 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Beijing Guoan 4-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 75%, Sichuan Jiuniu 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Beijing Guoan and 58% for Sichuan Jiuniu. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sichuan Jiuniu in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Beijing Guoan's games and 42% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 58% of Sichuan Jiuniu's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Sichuan Jiuniu 4-0 at Beijing Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.16 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.01 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sichuan Jiuniu landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.81 / defence 1.23, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 63% | Draw 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 17%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 66%, Sichuan Jiuniu 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.