Beijing Guoan 3-1 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 81% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu encounter.

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Analysis

Sichuan Jiuniu make the trip to Workers' Stadium to face Beijing Guoan in Super League (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Saturday 10 May 2025 at 14:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Beijing Guoan have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Beijing Guoan have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Sichuan Jiuniu (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Beijing Guoan's favour (1.90 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Beijing Guoan, 2 for Sichuan Jiuniu and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Jul 2024, ended Beijing Guoan 0–1 Sichuan Jiuniu — a Sichuan Jiuniu win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Sichuan Jiuniu — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 67% and Sichuan Jiuniu 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 63% | Sichuan Jiuniu 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.54 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.322 / defence 0.640 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.532 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.736 / away 1.432. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack rating of 1.322 — their 2.54 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack rating of 0.532 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.49. Beijing Guoan have a tight defence (rating 0.640), which is pulling Sichuan Jiuniu's projected output down. Data: built from Beijing Guoan's last 40 games and Sichuan Jiuniu's last 41.

Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 81% | Draw 14% | Sichuan Jiuniu 4%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.23 | Draw 6.90 | Sichuan Jiuniu 22.68. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (81%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 81% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Sichuan Jiuniu's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Beijing Guoan 50% (last 10 home games) | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% (last 10 away games).

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