Beijing Guoan 1-1 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Beijing Guoan welcome Meizhou Kejia to Workers' Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 April 2023 at 13:05 UTC.
Form Guide
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 5W 2D 3L at Workers' Stadium — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Meizhou Kejia have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Meizhou Kejia's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Beijing Guoan, 0 for Meizhou Kejia and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Meizhou Kejia in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 59% versus Meizhou Kejia 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 71% | Meizhou Kejia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.61 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.068 / defence 1.029 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.869 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.388. Data: 34 Beijing Guoan games / 34 Meizhou Kejia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 45% | Draw 26% | Meizhou Kejia 29%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Meizhou Kejia 3.45. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Beijing Guoan 70% | Meizhou Kejia 20%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 13:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 45% | Draw 26% | Meizhou Kejia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.61 / Meizhou Kejia 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.068 / def 1.029 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.869 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Meizhou Kejia xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 13:05 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 1 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 45% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (2 meetings): Beijing Guoan 0W | Draws 2 | Meizhou Kejia 0W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Meizhou Kejia's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.86
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.85
1.24
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
6%
17.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.24 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beijing Guoan come into this having played 34 games, going 17W 7D 10L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Meizhou Kejia sit at 1.44 PPG from 34 outings (14W 7D 13L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beijing Guoan on 1.71 PPG, Meizhou Kejia on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Beijing Guoan's home form reads 8W 4D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Meizhou Kejia have taken 1.12 points per game from 17 outings (5W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.26 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 17W 7D 10L in their last 34 games (1.71 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 14W 7D 13L in their last 34 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.65 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Meizhou Kejia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Meizhou Kejia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jun 2025, when Beijing Guoan won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
1
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Beijing Guoan 5-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 53%, Meizhou Kejia 24% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Beijing Guoan) and 41% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: Meizhou Kejia in 35%; Beijing Guoan have failed to score in 29% of games; Meizhou Kejia in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Meizhou Kejia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 24% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 41% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Beijing Guoan and Meizhou Kejia drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.61 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.24 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.07 / defence 1.03 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.87 / defence 1.03, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 45% | Draw 26% | Meizhou Kejia 29%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 71%, Meizhou Kejia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.71 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.