Beijing Guoan 1-2 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye meet at Beijing Workers' Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 6W 1D 3L at Beijing Workers' Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Henan Jianye have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Beijing Guoan, 1.80 for Henan Jianye — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Beijing Guoan register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Henan Jianye in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Beijing Guoan 4W, Henan Jianye 3W, 1D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Henan Jianye winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 65% and Henan Jianye 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 67% | Henan Jianye 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.94 xG and Henan Jianye 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.303 / defence 1.261 | Henan Jianye attack 0.870 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.225. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Beijing Guoan games / 43 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 51% | Draw 23% | Henan Jianye 26%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Henan Jianye 3.85. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 80% | Henan Jianye 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Beijing Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 51% | Draw 23% | Henan Jianye 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.94 / Henan Jianye 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.303 / def 1.261 | Henan Jianye attack 0.870 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Henan Jianye xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 2 Henan Jianye.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 51% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye?
Record (8 meetings): Beijing Guoan 4W | Draws 1 | Henan Jianye 3W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.87x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
51%
1.97
23%
4.32
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.28
1.34
Henan Jianye xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
4%
26.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.34 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 33W 14D 13L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Henan Jianye's form line: 19W 16D 25L from 60 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Henan Jianye.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Beijing Guoan have posted 2.17 PPG from 30 outings (20W 5D 5L).
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 7W 9D 14L from 30 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.43 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Henan Jianye in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 33W 14D 13L in their last 60 games (1.88 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Henan Jianye away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.17 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Henan Jianye have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 3-0 on 7 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
1
Draws
4
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye?
From 9 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Henan Jianye have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Beijing Guoan 1-2 Henan Jianye.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Beijing Guoan, 63% for Henan Jianye — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Beijing Guoan and 53% for Henan Jianye. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Henan Jianye?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Beijing Guoan's games and 63% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 53% of Henan Jianye's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Henan Jianye defy the odds to beat Beijing Guoan 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Beijing Guoan 1-2 at Beijing Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.94 xG and Henan Jianye 1.34 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Beijing Guoan fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.30 / defence 1.26 against Henan Jianye attack 0.87 / defence 0.89, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 51% | Draw 23% | Henan Jianye 26%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Henan Jianye win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 67%, Henan Jianye 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Henan Jianye winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.70 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.