Universidad de Chile 2-2 Deportes Iquique – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Universidad de Chile face Deportes Iquique.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Universidad de Chile and Deportes Iquique meet at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo in Primera División (matchday 11). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Universidad de Chile have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Universidad de Chile have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.77 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.970 / defence 0.901 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.089 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.294. Deportes Iquique's defence rating of 1.239 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Universidad de Chile's projected output up. Data: built from Universidad de Chile's last 40 games and Deportes Iquique's last 10.
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 49% | Draw 23% | Deportes Iquique 27%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 2.03 | Draw 4.29 | Deportes Iquique 3.64. Universidad de Chile hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.77 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Universidad de Chile at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique | Competition: Primera División, matchday 11 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 49% | Draw 23% | Deportes Iquique 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Universidad de Chile 1.77 / Deportes Iquique 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 0.970 / def 0.901 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.089 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Deportes Iquique xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique FAQs
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique?
Universidad de Chile 2 - 2 Deportes Iquique.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique is a Primera División fixture (matchday 11) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 49% chance of winning, Deportes Iquique a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Deportes Iquique will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Universidad de Chile's attack rating (0.97) and Deportes Iquique's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Deportes Iquique's attack (1.09x) against Universidad de Chile's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Universidad de Chile's last 40 games and Deportes Iquique's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
49%
2.03
23%
4.29
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
3.04
1.27
Deportes Iquique xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
5%
21.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Deportes Iquique expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 1.27 for Deportes Iquique, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Pre-Season
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Universidad de Chile (Home) vs Deportes Iquique (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Universidad de Chile
Pre-Season
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was on 6 December 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Universidad de Chile have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Deportes Iquique won Deportes Iquique 3-0 Universidad de Chile on 29 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Universidad de Chile have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Deportes Iquique — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Universidad de Chile
1
Draws
1
Deportes Iquique
Recent Meetings
❓ Universidad de Chile vs Deportes Iquique H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Deportes Iquique?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Universidad de Chile have won 2, Deportes Iquique have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Deportes Iquique last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 December 2025: Deportes Iquique 2-3 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Deportes Iquique?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Deportes Iquique away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Universidad de Chile and Deportes Iquique share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo, Regular Season - 11, as Universidad de Chile and Deportes Iquique drew 2-2 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.77 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.27 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 0.97 / defence 0.90 against Deportes Iquique attack 1.09 / defence 1.24, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 49% | Draw 23% | Deportes Iquique 27%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.