Universidad de Chile 0-0 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Coquimbo Unido travel to Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander to take on Universidad de Chile. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 7 September 2022, 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Universidad de Chile have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Universidad de Chile's home record at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Universidad de Chile are significantly better at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander than their overall form suggests.
Coquimbo Unido — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Universidad de Chile) versus 0.70 (Coquimbo Unido). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Universidad de Chile, 1 for Coquimbo Unido and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Universidad de Chile in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Universidad de Chile 56% and Coquimbo Unido 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Universidad de Chile 48% | Coquimbo Unido 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.74 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.812 / defence 1.194 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.744 / defence 1.435. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.149. Coquimbo Unido bring a strong defensive rating of 1.435 — this is suppressing Universidad de Chile's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Universidad de Chile games / 23 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 54% | Draw 24% | Coquimbo Unido 22%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Coquimbo Unido 4.55. Universidad de Chile hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Universidad de Chile as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Universidad de Chile 40% | Coquimbo Unido 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Sep 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 54% | Draw 24% | Coquimbo Unido 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Universidad de Chile 1.74 / Coquimbo Unido 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 0.812 / def 1.194 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.744 / def 1.435 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Coquimbo Unido xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 20:30 on Wednesday 7 September 2022 at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?
Universidad de Chile 0 - 0 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 54% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (1 meetings): Universidad de Chile 0W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 1W.
What form are Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido in?
Universidad de Chile (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Universidad de Chile's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Coquimbo Unido's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Universidad de Chile's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.23
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
2.76
1.02
Coquimbo Unido xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
4%
25.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 1.02 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Universidad de Chile come into this having played 23 games, going 6W 4D 13L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Universidad de Chile is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Coquimbo Unido sit at 0.83 PPG from 23 outings (5W 4D 14L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Universidad de Chile on 0.96 PPG, Coquimbo Unido on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Universidad de Chile's home form reads 5W 2D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Universidad de Chile are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Coquimbo Unido have taken 0.18 points per game from 11 outings (0W 2D 9L). That's a step down from their 0.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coquimbo Unido's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Universidad de Chile come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Universidad de Chile are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.17 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido in 65%.
Last 23 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Universidad de Chile have gone 6W 4D 13L in their last 23 games (0.96 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 5W 4D 14L in their last 23 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Universidad de Chile at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Universidad de Chile's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Universidad de Chile at home: 1.55 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 0.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Universidad de Chile's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Universidad de Chile
3
Draws
4
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Universidad de Chile have won 2, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 0-1 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Universidad de Chile see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Universidad de Chile 46%, Coquimbo Unido 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Universidad de Chile) and 64% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Universidad de Chile have failed to score in 36% of games; Coquimbo Unido in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Universidad de Chile play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Universidad de Chile's recent matches and 64% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Universidad de Chile's recent games and 64% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Universidad de Chile have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Universidad de Chile's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander, Regular Season - 24, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.74 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.02 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Universidad de Chile fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Coquimbo Unido landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 0.81 / defence 1.19 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.74 / defence 1.44, drawn from 55/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 54% | Draw 24% | Coquimbo Unido 22%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 48%, Coquimbo Unido 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Universidad de Chile 0.96 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.