Union La Calera 1-0 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Union La Calera take on Union Espanola.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 2 as Union La Calera welcome Union Espanola to Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 April 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 0.95 xG and Union Espanola 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.978 / defence 1.150 | Union Espanola attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.846 / away 1.098. Data: 1 Union La Calera games / 1 Union Espanola games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 28% | Draw 39% | Union Espanola 34%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 3.57 | Draw 2.56 | Union Espanola 2.94. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 28% | Draw 39% | Union Espanola 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Union La Calera 0.95 / Union Espanola 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.978 / def 1.150 | Union Espanola attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.846 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Union Espanola xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Union Espanola kick off?
Union La Calera vs Union Espanola kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 3 April 2021 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Union Espanola?
Union La Calera 1 - 0 Union Espanola.
Where is Union La Calera vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Union Espanola part of?
Union La Calera vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 28% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 34% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Union La Calera and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Union Espanola?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union La Calera and Union Espanola in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Union La Calera's attack rating (0.98) and Union Espanola's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union Espanola's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.63
39%
2.59
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.02
1.07
Union Espanola xG
3.63
28%
Home win
2.59
39%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
9%
10.62
13%
7.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 14.2 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.07 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Pre-Season
Union Espanola
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 19 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2023, when Union La Calera won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union La Calera's record when hosting Union Espanola specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union La Calera
1
Draws
4
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Union Espanola?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 5, Union Espanola have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2025, when Union Espanola 3-1 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Union Espanola?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Union La Calera defy the odds to beat Union Espanola 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Union Espanola 1-0 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 0.95 xG and Union Espanola 1.07 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union Espanola landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Union Espanola attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 28% | Draw 39% | Union Espanola 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Union La Calera win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.