Union La Calera 2-2 Nublense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Union La Calera take on Nublense.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 17 as Union La Calera welcome Nublense to Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar. Kick-off is set for Monday 11 July 2022 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union La Calera's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Primera División games this season, Nublense have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nublense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nublense's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Nublense are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Union La Calera, 0 for Nublense and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Union La Calera trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Nublense trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 50% versus Nublense 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 44% | Nublense 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 0.80 xG and Nublense 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.757 / defence 0.939 | Nublense attack 1.015 / defence 0.738. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 0.980. Union La Calera's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nublense's defence strength of 0.738 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 Union La Calera games / 48 Nublense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 28% | Draw 37% | Nublense 35%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 3.57 | Draw 2.70 | Nublense 2.86. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Union La Calera's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.74 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates are neutral: Union La Calera 40% | Nublense 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Monday 11 Jul 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 28% | Draw 37% | Nublense 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 35% | xG Union La Calera 0.80 / Nublense 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.757 / def 0.939 | Nublense attack 1.015 / def 0.738 | league avg home 1.436 / away 0.980 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Nublense xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Nublense kick off?
Union La Calera vs Nublense kicked off at 01:00 on Monday 11 July 2022 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Union La Calera 2 - 2 Nublense.
Where is Union La Calera vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Nublense part of?
Union La Calera vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 28% chance of winning, Nublense a 35% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Union La Calera and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Nublense?
Record (2 meetings): Union La Calera 1W | Draws 1 | Nublense 0W.
What form are Union La Calera and Nublense in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Nublense (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union La Calera's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Nublense's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, Nublense's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.59
37%
2.71
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
1.74
0.93
Nublense xG
3.59
28%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
16%
6.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 16.5 | 7.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Union La Calera and 0.93 for Nublense, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union La Calera's recent record stands at 17W 14D 17L from 48 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nublense, meanwhile, have gone 19W 16D 13L across 48 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Nublense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.35 PPG, Nublense on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union La Calera have managed 9W 6D 9L from 24 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nublense's away record stands at 7W 9D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Union La Calera are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.54 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Blended
Nublense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Nublense in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 17W 14D 17L in their last 48 games (1.35 PPG), while Nublense have gone 19W 16D 13L in their last 48 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Nublense away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.38 PPG; Nublense away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Union La Calera or Nublense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Nublense in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Union La Calera won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union La Calera's record when hosting Nublense specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union La Calera
5
Draws
1
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Nublense?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 4, Nublense have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Union La Calera 0-1 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Nublense?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 46%, Nublense 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Union La Calera) and 42% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: Union La Calera keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Nublense in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Nublense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 58% of Nublense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union La Calera vs Nublense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Union La Calera's recent games and 42% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Nublense tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nublense in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union La Calera and Nublense share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera and Nublense finished level at 2-2 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 17, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 0.80 xG and Nublense 0.93 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Union La Calera beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nublense outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.76 / defence 0.94 against Nublense attack 1.01 / defence 0.74, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 28% | Draw 37% | Nublense 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 44%, Nublense 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Nublense's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.35 PPG, Nublense 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Union La Calera (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.