Union La Calera 3-0 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 47%, yet the head-to-head data favours Cobresal — this Union La Calera vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cobresal travel to Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar to take on Union La Calera in Primera División (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Union La Calera stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Union La Calera's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cobresal — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
On the road, Cobresal have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Union La Calera) versus 1.30 (Cobresal). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Cobresal have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches against 0 for Union La Calera.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Jun 2024, ended Union La Calera 1–2 Cobresal — a Cobresal win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Cobresal have won 5 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Cobresal in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union La Calera 59% and Cobresal 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 48% | Cobresal 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.43 xG and Cobresal 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.858 / defence 1.151 | Cobresal attack 0.728 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.210. Cobresal's attack rating of 0.728 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from Union La Calera's last 59 games and Cobresal's last 59.
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 47% | Draw 27% | Cobresal 27%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 2.15 | Draw 3.75 | Cobresal 3.73. Union La Calera hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union La Calera are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union La Calera offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union La Calera 70% (last 10 home games) | Cobresal 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, matchday 30 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 47% | Draw 27% | Cobresal 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Union La Calera 1.43 / Cobresal 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.858 / def 1.151 | Cobresal attack 0.728 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Cobresal xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union La Calera vs Cobresal FAQs
What time does Union La Calera vs Cobresal kick off?
Union La Calera vs Cobresal kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Union La Calera 3 - 0 Cobresal.
Where is Union La Calera vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Cobresal part of?
Union La Calera vs Cobresal is a Primera División fixture (matchday 30) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 47% chance of winning, Cobresal a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Union La Calera and Cobresal will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Union La Calera vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union La Calera's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Cobresal's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Cobresal's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union La Calera's last 59 games and Cobresal's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
47%
2.15
27%
3.75
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.44
1.01
Cobresal xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
6%
15.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union La Calera vs Cobresal Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.01 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union La Calera come into this having played 59 games, going 18W 18D 23L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Cobresal sit at 1.46 PPG from 59 outings (23W 17D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.22 PPG, Cobresal on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union La Calera's home form reads 9W 7D 13L across their last 29 home games, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Cobresal have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 29 away games (5W 10D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Union La Calera are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.63 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cobresal in 63%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
Cobresal
Current Season
Union La Calera (Home) vs Cobresal (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union La Calera
Current Season
Cobresal
Current Season
❓ Union La Calera vs Cobresal Form FAQs
What form are Union La Calera and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 18W 18D 23L in their last 59 games (1.22 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 23W 17D 19L in their last 59 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Cobresal away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.17 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cobresal have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Aug 2026, when Cobresal won Cobresal 4-0 Union La Calera.
Union La Calera's record when hosting Cobresal specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union La Calera
1
Draws
7
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Union La Calera vs Cobresal H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Cobresal?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union La Calera have won 2, Cobresal have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Cobresal last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Cobresal 4-0 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Cobresal?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union La Calera see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 66%, Cobresal 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Union La Calera and 59% for Cobresal. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union La Calera have failed to score in 31% of games; Cobresal in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union La Calera vs Cobresal Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union La Calera and Cobresal matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Union La Calera's games and 52% of Cobresal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union La Calera and Cobresal matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Union La Calera's matches and 59% of Cobresal's.
Do Union La Calera and Cobresal matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 62% of Cobresal's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union La Calera run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cobresal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Cobresal 3-0 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 30, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.43 xG and Cobresal 1.01 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Union La Calera beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cobresal landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Cobresal attack 0.73 / defence 1.08, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 47% | Draw 27% | Cobresal 27%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 48%, Cobresal 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Cobresal's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.22 PPG, Cobresal 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.