Union La Calera 2-1 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antofagasta at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union La Calera vs Antofagasta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Antofagasta travel to Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar to take on Union La Calera. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 May 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.05 xG and Antofagasta 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.973 / defence 1.056 | Antofagasta attack 1.134 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 0.865 / away 1.089. Antofagasta bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Union La Calera's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Union La Calera games / 4 Antofagasta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 26% | Draw 36% | Antofagasta 38%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 3.85 | Draw 2.78 | Antofagasta 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Antofagasta as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antofagasta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 26% | Draw 36% | Antofagasta 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Union La Calera 1.05 / Antofagasta 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.973 / def 1.056 | Antofagasta attack 1.134 / def 1.246 | league avg home 0.865 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Antofagasta (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Antofagasta xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Antofagasta kick off?
Union La Calera vs Antofagasta kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 1 May 2021 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Antofagasta?
Union La Calera 2 - 1 Antofagasta.
Where is Union La Calera vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Antofagasta part of?
Union La Calera vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 26% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 38% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Antofagasta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Union La Calera and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Antofagasta?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union La Calera and Antofagasta in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union La Calera's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Antofagasta's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Antofagasta's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antofagasta Win
26%
3.84
36%
2.82
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.35
1.30
Antofagasta xG
3.84
26%
Home win
2.82
36%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
7%
14.16
13%
7.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.30 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Antofagasta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Pre-Season
Antofagasta
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union La Calera and Antofagasta runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Union La Calera's record when hosting Antofagasta specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Union La Calera
2
Draws
0
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Antofagasta?
From 4 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 2, Antofagasta have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2022, when Union La Calera 1-1 Antofagasta.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Antofagasta?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Union La Calera defy the odds to beat Antofagasta 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Antofagasta 2-1 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.05 xG and Antofagasta 1.30 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Union La Calera beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Antofagasta attack 1.13 / defence 1.25, drawn from 5/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 26% | Draw 36% | Antofagasta 38%, with Antofagasta to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Union La Calera win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.